Nevada Political Roundup: Primary 2022 Edition

Welcome to the Tom Clark Solutions weekly roundup!
Here is where we'll keep you informed on what is happening in Nevada politics.

Opening remarks

Ballots arrived in mailboxes across our state (over ten days ago) and people can complete their ballot in the kitchen or take the traditional route and vote at an early voting location. It is very easy to cast your ballot in Nevada but the Early Voter statistics from across the state show that voters aren't interested. Yet.

It is always difficult to get people to vote in non-presidential primaries. It's even more difficult when the election is occurring at the end of the school year, the weather is warming up and people are more excited about their vacation than voting. This year, I would add that the vitriolic television, radio and mail campaigns are also a factor. It's nasty out there.

I also expect (hope) a surge of ballots will be cast this week. I predict A LOT of surprises when the ballots are tallied. There are a number of races that are going to be close and the winner will not be decided on Election Day. It's going to be an exciting time!   

Important Dates

Primary Early VotingMay 28 – June 10
Primary ElectionTuesday June 14, 2022
General Early VotingOctober 22 – November 4
General ElectionTuesday November 8, 2022

Primary Races We're Watching

Below is a list of primary races our firm is watching, either due to their competitiveness, the amount of chatter surrounding the race, or because of the broader implications (cough cough red wave in November?).

To view the list of the candidates running for office, visit our 2022 Election webpage, your one-stop shop for all things Nevada 2022. Here you can also find links to each candidate’s campaign website and the latest voter registration breakdown of each jurisdiction.


U.S. Senate Republican Primary
Adam Laxalt is “the chosen one” this time round, being one of the few Republican candidates with endorsements from both Trump and McConnell, but political newcomer Sam Brown has been making headlines for consistently raising six figures and earning some well-known endorsements of his own.

Congressional District 1 Democratic Primary
We don’t expect incumbent Dina Titus to lose this race, but it is one the highest profile races in the state where a progressive candidate is challenging a more moderate incumbent, echoing the clash between the progressive wing and moderate wing of the Democratic Party in other primaries across the country.

Congressional District 3 Republican Primary
The NRCC has thrown their support behind April Becker, a candidate who they believe has a real shot at beating incumbent Susie Lee in November and helping them achieve their goal of winning control of the U.S. House.

Gubernatorial Republican Primary
Lombardo is expected to win the nomination, as he is seen as Republicans’ best chance against Sisolak in November, but a crowded field and new elements to Nevada’s voting process (mail-in ballots, transition from caucus to primary system) means it is more difficult to predict voter turnout and Republican enthusiasm than in previous midterm election cycles. This primary isn't over.

Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary
Incumbent Lisa Cano Burkhead has some high-profile officials backing her, but Debra March has a long record of public service in the state and her own set of well-known Nevadans supporting her campaign.

State Senate District 16 Republican Primary
Assemblywoman Lisa Krasner began her campaign for this seat even before Don Tatro was appointed to step in after Ben Kieckhefer, who was term limited, resigned from the Legislature to join the Nevada Gaming Commission. Even though Tatro is the incumbent, his candidate filing came as a bit of a surprise given that he during his appointment interview last year, he stated he had no intention to run for the seat in 2022.


State Senate District 17 Republican Primary
Assembly Minority Leader Robin Titus and Assemblyman Jim Wheeler, who was Minority Leader prior to Titus, are both campaigning for this seat but only one will be returning to the Legislature in 2023.

State Assembly District 25, both primaries
Democratic: The Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsed Alex Goff for the seat, while Selena La Rue Hatch was endorsed by the Nevada State Education Association and Washoe Education Association. The race is one of many featuring a Democratic caucus-endorsed candidate running against a teacher union-backed candidate.  - Tabitha Mueller, The Nevada Independent
Republican: Jacob Williams is the chosen successor of Jill Tolles’ seat but with the new maps drawn in 2021, this district now has a slight Democratic voter registration advantage, however this seat is still competitive. The Assembly Republican Caucus has targeted this district as in-play for the General and will do their best to ensure it continues to be represented by a Republican, as it has been for the past decade.
 
State Assembly District 26 Republican Primary
The is a safe Republican district with 0 Democrats in the race, meaning whoever comes out on top next week is presumed to be this district’s next representative. (Who will likely be the next representatives for Assembly Districts 19 and 23 will also be decided on June 14, given that both these districts have a +12% or more registered Republican advantage.)

State Assembly District 27 Democratic Primary
Similar to District 25, this democratic primary features candidates that have split the endorsements from traditionally democratically aligned unions, organizations, and/or associations. Theresa Benitez-Thompson, the current representative of the district, is termed-out and has endorsed Dr. Angie Taylor, Washoe County School Board President, as her successor. The other democratic candidate, Brian Lee, has received endorsements from several education associations, including the NSEA. 

State Assembly District 29 Democratic Primary
Incumbent Leslie Cohen has a tough primary ahead of her, with well funded PACs throwing their weight behind challenger Joe Dalia.

Further reading: Our list somewhat differs from The Nevada Independent’s. To see what other primaries are on-the-radar, check out their 2022 election page.  


Early Voting Information

There were 39,921 Nevadans who voted in person during the first week of early voting:

  • 34% = D
  • 57% = R
  • 9% = Other

A total of 71,347 mail-in ballots across the state have been returned during the first week of early voting:

  • 43.1% = D
  • 36.7% = R
  • 20.2% = Other

For more information, view the Secretary of State’s breakdown of 2022 Primary Election Turnout Week 1.

The last day to cast your early vote in-person is this Friday, June 10.
 
The Primary Election is Tuesday June 14.
Find your voting location (by county) here.
 
Mailed ballots hand-delivered or postmarked by 5:00 p.m. on Election Day in order to be counted. Track your mailed ballot here.


What we’re doing this Interim

The 2021 Nevada Legislature passed Assembly Bill 443, Legislation that fundamentally changed the way the Legislature operates between Sessions. The newly formed Interim Standing Committees have begun meeting, hearing overviews of their mission and setting agendas for the next eleven months.

Click here to view a list of upcoming Joint Interim Standing Committee meetings.

2021 Redistricting Maps

The new boundaries would give 14 of the 21 state Senate districts and 27 of the 42 Assembly districts a voter registration advantage for Democrats over Republicans of more than 4.5 percent.

The Nevada Independent

Please see the links below to view the new district lines for Nevada Assembly, Senate and Congressional delegation.

MapsTables
AssemblyAssembly
SenateSenate
Congressional Congressional

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